Blue Jays' draft pick Diedrick proving his worth

Baseball Betting Lines

08/09/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - About the only thing bigger than Philip Diedrick's heart is his smile.

Diedrick's infectious grin and mild-mannered approach to life are attributes that serve him well in life and on the diamond.

If only pitchers saw the softer side of him.

The Philip Diedrick that pitchers see is much more relentless, a menacing left-handed power hitter with an imposing presence at the plate whose preference is to make pitchers pay on his terms.

Never was that more apparent than last month at the 2010 International Baseball Federation World Junior Baseball Championship in Thunder Bay, Ont., when Diedrick's first-inning heroics held up as the difference for Canada against reigning and two-time defending champion South Korea.

A day after losing to Cuba in a heart-breaking 3-0 loss in front of a sellout crowd, Diedrick picked his team up in the biggest way.

South Korea, desperate not to get in a hole early to a team it was supposed to beat, brought in a left-handed pitcher just two batters into the game with left-handed hitters waiting on deck.

As Diedrick described it, "They were trying to work the percentages against us."

Good thing Diedrick's a better baseball player than he is a mathematician.

Down 2-1 in the count with the bases loaded and two outs, Canada's designated hitter watched a fastball settle into the middle of the plate for a strike as if to grant it immunity for flying over restricted air space. His odds just got worse.

But Diedrick wasn't so kind to the next pitch or the law of percentages, drilling it the other way over the left field fence to give Canada a 4-0 lead they would ultimately hold onto in a 5-4 edging of the gold-medal favorite Koreans.

"It was the biggest game of my career so far," he said of the grand slam. "It felt amazing."

While most players, especially ones his age, would have buckled under the pressure of playing for their home country in front of a sellout crowd with family cheering them on from their seats behind home plate, Diedrick relished the opportunity.

"It was one of the best moments of my life knowing that I got the chance to represent my country," said Diedrick, recalling the day he learned he was selected to the national team. "One day I can be in the same sentence as Sidney Crosby or Justin Morneau, and all those other guys who get to represent their country. Not just at the senior level, but at the junior level."

As for being in the same sentence as Morneau, he concedes it's a tall order. Despite being selected in the 45th round by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2010 MLB Draft, the 6-1, 202-pound outfielder has yet to be offered a contract by the big league club.

In the meantime, he knows it's all about that hard work and preparation his mother preached to him as a child.

"I always just tried to do my best to make my mom proud. And my grandma, the value she instilled in my mom, and the values that my mom instills in me, helps me to be who I am."

These days being him, isn't so bad.

When asked if he recalls the day he found out he was drafted by a Major League Baseball team, Diedrick flashed his trademark smile.

"I was actually staying at home following it on the Internet and then when they called my name, I was in shock," he said. "My coach called me, and then I was like, 'Okay, it really happened.' It was amazing."

If Diedrick isn't signed by the mid-August deadline, he'll attend Bossier Parish College in Louisiana this fall, where he'll get a chance to show scouts and evaluators south of the border the type of raw power and plate presence he turned heads with at the Worlds.

"He's going to be a good hitter going forward," said Greg Hamilton, head coach and director of Baseball Canada's national teams. "He's a big strong kid and he's not a one-dimensional kind of guy. He will go the other way a little bit for you as well."

"I thought he had a real nice tournament."

Nice to Canada, brutally unforgiving to opposing teams.

Diedrick finished the tournament 14-for-31 (.452) with a team-leading 10 RBI in eight games, garnering a nod as IBAF first-team designated hitter all-star for his accomplishments.

But the Ajax, Ont. native's rise to success on the diamond is relatively new to him.

He said it wasn't until a breakout performance at last year's Canada Cup - a collection of the country's best seventeen and eighteen-year-olds under one national tournament - that he caught the attention of Hamilton, who was in the process of assembling the juniors' summer tour roster.

"Since then, we went to Disney [Team Canada's spring training facility] two times. I went to Dominican Republic, and I was just getting better and better and kept getting the call back from Greg saying, 'Come on other trips.'

A few home runs later and Diedrick was joining the junior national team and playing against the best 18-and-under baseball players in the world.

"It lets you know where you compare on a world stage," said Diedrick. "In Canada, you know you're one of the top 20 players and then when you go and play against the U.S. or other countries, you can see where you stack up."

For someone who's been playing for "five or six years now," Diedrick stacks up pretty good against a plethora of talent destined for the major leagues.

He smiles when asked what the response has been from his friends since his dissension through the ranks of amateur baseball.

"They always just ask me when are the season tickets coming," he said with a laugh. "I just tell them 'In time, I will get there.'"

His mother told him to "always finish what you start." Now that he has the directions to get there, it's all about executing.

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2007 NFL Football Betting Preview


“You play to win the game!”

Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.

The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.

The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.

Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?

Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.

New York Giants betting lines

Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.

Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.

Dallas Cowboys betting lines

Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.

The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.

Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.

Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.

Oakland Raiders betting lines

This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.

First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”

The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason. 

Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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