Hornets gain ground on Southwest Division-leading Spurs

Basketball Betting Lines

03/29/2009 - New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David West went 11-for-11 from the free throw line as part of a 23-point effort, and the New Orleans Hornets made up some ground in the Southwest Division with a 90-86 victory over the San Antonio Spurs.

West also pulled down 16 rebounds for New Orleans, which moved to within 2 1/2 games of the Spurs with 10 games remaining. The Hornets also moved into a sixth-place tie with the idle Jazz in the conference standings.

Chris Paul added 26 points, nine assists and seven rebounds, as the Hornets won for the fourth time in six games. Antonio Daniels contributed 10 points in the victory.

Tony Parker had a team-high 20 points to go with seven assists for San Antonio, which had a three-game win streak snapped and dropped to only a half- game ahead of Denver and Houston for second place in the West. The Spurs also missed on an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot, although they will secure a berth if Phoenix loses to Sacramento later on Sunday.

Tim Duncan provided 19 points and 15 rebounds, while Manu Ginobili had 17 points in the defeat. Michael Finley added 12 points.

Trailing by five to start the fourth, the Spurs cut their deficit to 72-71 on a Drew Gooden layup with 8:36 left, but the Hornets pushed their lead back to five, 80-75, on a Paul jumper with five minutes remaining.

A Matt Bonner three made it a three-point game with 3:40 left, and, after several failed possessions by both teams, West's jumper with 38.9 seconds left made it 85-80 in favor of New Orleans.

Finley's three-point attempt was off on the ensuing possession, and Rasual Butler hit two free throws to put the hosts ahead by seven.

Just when the game seemed to be in control, Ginobili drained a three and was fouled on New Orleans' inbounds attempt, giving the ball back to San Antonio. Finley promptly connected on a three from the corner to make it 87-86 with 17.8 seconds to play.

Paul was fouled by Ginobili with 7.1 seconds on the clock in the act of shooting a three-pointer from about half-court. San Antonio was extremely unhappy with the shooting foul call, but Paul sank all three from the line to make it a four-point, two-possession game.

San Antonio only got one shot off before the buzzer, a missed three-pointer by Finley, giving New Orleans the victory.

The Spurs held a 25-19 lead after the first quarter, but the Hornets cut their deficit to 47-43 at halftime.

New Orleans quickly made up its deficit, forging ahead, 55-53, on a Julian Wright three-point play just past the seven-minute mark.

Back-to-back threes later in the third from Finley and Ginobili put the Spurs back in front by four, but a Sean Marks dunk gave the Hornets a 64-63 lead with 2 1/2 minutes to go. The hosts led, 68-63, heading to the fourth.

Game Notes

New Orleans leads the season series 2-1, and the teams will meet on April 15 in San Antonio to close out the season...Spurs center Fabricio Oberto missed his second straight game with a irregular heartbeat...New Orleans forward James Posey missed the game after being suspended for one contest following an altercation with a referee in the team's loss to New York on Friday...The Spurs fell to 21-11 in games decided by six or less points.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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